UFC 104 (Fight Video): Mauricio Shogun Rua beats Machida bloody, but senile judges (and God knows what else) rob him blind

Or if you like,  “Fuck the Judges: Machida succumbs to the fists and kicks of  fearless rock n’ roller named Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. “

Yes, we said “succumb”, because that is exactly what Machida did. Noone has any idea which fight the UFC 104 judges saw when they scored it  48-47 unanimously for Machida when he was winded, beaten and bloodied by round 5, having been rocked not once – but countless times by a young tough who knew where the Machida’s stylistic bones were buried.  And he wasted no time in going right to it and drawing blood by the end.

In our scoring Shogun won all rounds with the possible exception of round 3 where Machida exploded with strikes and kicks that could have knocked Shogun out had Machida had the power to deliver the coup de grace.   How judges Cecil Peoples and Marcos Rosales could have given the first two rounds to Machida is beyond comprehension. And the judge who gave Shogun at least the first round inexplicably reversed himself and gave Machida the final one during which he was visibly debilitated by a dominant Shogun. This judging just boggles the mind. It boggles the mind when one sits down with pen and paper and replays the entire fight.

You can see the  fight video here, while it lasts.  The loading lags quite a bit, so your best bet is to launch it, place it on pause it and brew a nice cup of tea  for about 20 minutes  and then play the video when the graphic meter shows a full load of the entire 36:29 minutes. You will get a smooth play that can be paused and  replayed on the go.

The Mega-Video version which is twice as large as the standard mini-screen version can be seen at  www.mmator.com. Just allow for adequate loading time which will depend on the speed and capacity of your connection. This one is much more fun to watch.

On the pictures side, you can check out the San Francisco Examiner page.

Rashad Evans is seating at home nodding his head like a  sage
As the veil parts and the cloud lifts from his head.
The Machida thrill is gone, and he now knows it can be done
Because a young tough named Shogun showed him how

Night-time Robbery at the Staples: We at Cyberaxis are pretty miffed about this.  There  is nothing anecdotal about this contention:  Mauricio Rua, who came in as the decided underdog, beat Lyoto Machida silly, then got robbed blind by three senile judges and God knows what else. Someone needs to investigate them, and while they are at it, get their blood and urine samples  because the fans deserve to know what the were on the night they plopped their fat asses in the judges’ chairs. The unanimous  48-47 decision for Machida should, in the name of on-going integrity of the UFC,  not go unchallenged because Rua beat Machida soundly in at least 3, if not more, of those the 5 rounds. MMA fans deserve to know what fight those judges were watching tonight. Seriously. Placing the burden on Shogun because he did not knock Machida out outright  is a convenient cop-out.

I see politics has made its way into the UFC. It was bound to happen, just like boxing. I’m seriously debating on not watching UFC anymore. That decision was absolutely FIXED. And I wanted Machida to win. F*## the money grubbing criminals. NOFYB,  Salt Lake City Headlines Examiner.

The release of the judges score card does little to shed any light on what went on inside their heads or what fight they were watching. Their defenders are gonna have an impossible time trying to explain this kind of UNANIMOUS scoring:

Here are the cards in all their stilted glory:

Marcos Rosales (Machida 48-47):
1stRound: Machida 10-9
2ndRound: Machida 10-9
3rdRound: Machida 10-9
4thRound: Rua 10-9
5thRound: Rua 10-9

Cecil Peoples (Machida 48-47):
1stRound: Machida 10-9
2ndRound: Machida 10-9
3rdRound: Machida 10-9
4thRound: Rua 10-9
5thRound: Rua 10-9

Nelson Hamilton (Machida 48-47):
1stRound: Rua 10-9
2ndRound: Machida 10-9
3rdRound: Machida 10-9
4thRound: Machida 10-9
5thRound: Rua 10-9

Scoring summary over 5 rounds:

Nelson Hamilton:  Shogun, Machida, Machida, Machida, Shogun.

Cecil Peoples:  Machida, Machida, Machida, Shogun, Shogun

Marcos Rosales:  Machida, Machida, Machida, Shogun, Shogun.

Judges Sch-mudges – Fuck the Judges! (They were scoring out of their asses): An impartial panel should review that fight frame by frame and re-score it and publish their results before the end of 30 days – with the power of some kind of redress, within or without the regulations.  This may have no precedent in UFC – but that is what the UFC should have to deal with when their judges return such a ridiculous verdict. Unanimous!? Give us a break. UFC adjudication runs the risk of being considered a bloody  joke, if not worse – if you get our drift here.

Aaron Glazer of the San Francisco Examiner is already questioning the integrity of UFC adjudication after two questionable calls within a short period of time:

“Lyoto Machida, the heavily favored light heavyweight champion took on Mauricio “Shogun” Rua in a five round title fight. During this fight, Machida got flat out beat. Of the five rounds, only one, the third, was even seriously debatable to going to Machida. He’s an undefeated champion who has beaten huge name Rashad Evans to a great buy-rate and the UFC clearly wants to protect him, but this is absurd. A man cannot clearly lose 4 or 5 rounds and likely have lost that fifth, then win the fight by decision. It’s simply not possible. To quote a certain famous dramatist: “Something is rotten in the state of Denmark.” So, with this, so soon after UFC 101, Dana White, the UFC owner, has opened himself up for massive questioning and investigating. Wrestling, long believed real, suffered the same fate and became pure entertainment. Is that the fate of the UFC and MMA in general?” (Aaron Glazer, “What are the chances that Machida vs Shogun Rua was fixed?”,  San Francisco Examiner, October 25, 2009)

The Deconstruction of Lyoto Machida at UFC 104 by a fearless young gun, Mauricio "Shogun" Rua. Shogun's intermittent barrages hobbled Machida, in addition to drawing visible blood in the end. (Photo: Jon Kopaloff/Getty Images)

Cyberaxis prediction: A professional and public relations firestorm has already erupted over this and Dana White and the UFC will have to fix this post haste. Did we say “fix”? That was totally cosmic!

This latest fiasco adds incredible  fuel to the bonfire of bad decisions that have been made in the UFC lately.  And a lot of fans, judging by actual and internet postings, “have had it with UFC”! Such shennanigans undermine the tenuous faith fans have in this nascent organization. It leads  the level-headed to wonder whether the UFC is just  greasy fight organization with the genes of other fight organizations that have gone before it. Boxing and wheeler-dealing ways of Don King come to mind.

“Shogun and Machida fought their hearts out, but anyone watching that fight knows Shogun won.

The UFC just lost a ton of credibility. It isn’t really a secret that Machida is one of their money makers now, but Shogun won that fight and I doubt I will pay for another UFC fight.

Hell, Mike Goldberg was advertising for the UFC constantly right in the middle of fights. I don’t pay $45 to hear that distracting garbage.

And I certainly don’t pay $45 to see the judges literally gift a fight.

Lyoto even knew he lost when the fight ended. He could barely raise his hands in victory, because HE knew he lost. When Lyoto was waiting for the decision, it was clearly written on his face that he lost. He was waiting for the announcement to take his title away.

UFC is cheap. No respect for their fighters. Shogun is the true champion and we all know it. Everyone who watched that fight knows it.

Between this and calling the Cain/Ben fight way early, I’d have to say the UFC screwed up. Uga Booga – Commenting on Aaron Glazer’s Post “What are the chances that UFC 104′s Machida vs Shogun Rua was fixed?”

The UFC clearly had a vested interest in a win by Machida because of the dire need  star luster in a division that hasn’t had it ever since Tito Ortiz or Chuck Liddel were dethroned. The musical chair circus of Quinton Jackson, Forrest Griffin, Rashad Evans and Lyoto Machida within a short space of time has done little to build the potential for effective marketing and major Pay Per View bank.  Shogun Rua was not supposed to win tonight because it would have perpetuated the musical chair circus. But win in actuality he did. Now the question that remains is what fight were those judges watching? What is their history and background?

Judges Sch-mudges - Fuck the Judges! They scored out of their asses. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua clearly won UFC 104. Check out the body language. The fraudulent judges' ruling will taint the UFC for a long time. And Shogun's dominant performance was a definite game changer for Lyoto Machida.

There was nothing particularly esoteric about the way the fight progressed tonight. A 15 year old could have judged the contest equitably.  Shogun beat Machida’s butt black and blue.  No ifs ands or butts about it. Machida’s  body language, not to mention his face, said it all. He looked battered, winded and defeated. Compare that visual with that of  Shogun: He was energized, smiling and pumping up his fists following the final bell. And Shogun, a veteran  of brutal Pride battles of yore ain’t no dummy.  A five year old kid could have easily surmised the result of what had just happened; but the judges saw something completely different on top of scoring a fight that must have been  playing in their heads  prior to coming to the Staples Center.

“Dana joked that Strike Force should be called Strike Farce. I gotta say that with the judges decision last night the biggest farce right now is the UFC and anyone who says Fedor was foolish for not joining the UFC can eat crow because the same thing could have happened to him as it did Shogun. If Fedor is to join the UFC it has to be co-promoted to prevent the corrupt UFC judges from making incorrect rulings. Otherwise fighters should hop on the Strike Force band wagon because it may be the only legitimate American MMA fighting organization left right now. ( Neil Roger responding to Brian Oswald’s  ‘Does A Lyoto Machida vs Shogun Rua Rescue The Division?’ Bleacher Report, October 25, 2009)

Even Dana White had to admit to Shogun that he had him ahead of Machida  by his own reckoning. And a forlon Machida refused, even through his corner, to say whether he seconded the judges’ decision. He deflected the issue by pointing out that all three judges had scored the fight in his favor.  The fans responded to the announcement of the Machida win with boos that were heard around the world; which places both the UFC and the Machida camp in an unenviable position of partly defending the indefensible. The rematch concession doesn’t even begin to address the fact Shogun was robbed blind. It wasn’t a good day for the UFC,  or  the Machida camp. Lyoto doesn’t really  deserve to be booed over this, but that is what he is gonna get, especially for his post-fight reaction.

The P.R. Mess: The rematch idea is just another crazy sideshow in an organization that already has many crazy sideshows – this one coming on the heels of Quinton Jackson’s abdication (following what he describes as a series of crazy decisions by Dana White.) The UFC 104 judges should have gotten it right in the first place and not robbed Shogun Rua blind of the belt he clearly deserved. This mess is just not needed. And the rematch is not gonna please a lot of people.  And if it happens, the UFC needs to make it a free, televised event in prime time. Charging for such an event would be immoral and unethical.

Despite Rua controlling the octagon for a majority of the five-round battle (of UFC 104), the judges ruled unanimously (48-47) that Machida was the victor. FightMetric, the FanGraphs of Mixed Martial Arts, shows that Rua was far-and-away the winner of the bout, mostly on account of landing nearly twice as many hits as his opponent. Following the fight, the Internet was very quickly populated with claims that the fight was fixed. UFC President Dana White denied the fix, but did criticize the judges over the ruling and immediately scheduled a rematch between the two fighters.

White, of course, would never flat admit that the fight was fixed. He can feign anger at the judges, but look at what he gets out of it: profit from UFC 104 due to the Machida-Rua fight, and then a rematch that is already generating a lot of buzz, which leads to more revenue. What are we — including us skeptics — going to do when that rematch is televised? We’ll tune in! Of course we will! (Bill Baer, “What If It Isn’t Real?” Baseball Daily Digest)

As if the UFC needs this,  there are fans already vowing to never purchase Pay Per View for UFC events again. The alternative for hopeless addicts would be seeing UFC events at Hooters  or local neighborhood sports bars that show these events gratis or for a small cover charge.

The UFC should  start addressing its P.R. problem by releasing the full video of the Machida-Rua fight gratis in the name of transparency. Whether the  UFC management and its counterparts at all levels of gaming are gonna pursue this public  fiasco with true  reformist zeal or the weary old  “this-is-how-babies-are-made” attitude is gonna make a world of difference. But we are not holding our breath.

Screw the Muppet Show farts who scored UFC 104 for Machida when the Mauricio Shogun Rua had clearly outboxed and out-smacked the reigning champion. In the minds of hard core fans, Shogun IS the new Light Heavyweight champion.

Stay tuned, because we are just clearing our throat here.

Meanwhile, the reaction to the judges’ decision runs the whole gamut from the cant and sophistry of the MMA Fanhouse article here (“Outrage in Machida-Shogun Unwarranted in Razor-Close Fight” by Mike Chiapetta) to the wholesale outrage expressed by most fans before the industry spin-meisters started spinning the the story. Here is a sample of the firestorm that exploded on Tweeter minutes after the results were announced. It does not matter which search terms you enter. The results are the same. Noone except the most die-hard urine-drinkers, believe Machida won tonight:

Beginning of sample tweets:

1. ScottChuck UFC 104 thoughts…Shogun was robbed. Also Cain is a scary man and a fight with Brock would be great. 7 minutes ago from web
2. YounDk machida was disappointing.. shogun got robbed. #fb 9 minutes ago from Twitterrific
3. JRandallMusic Shogun was robbed 17 minutes ago from web
4. kellbailey shogun got robbed. I was rooting for machida, but he should not have won 20 minutes ago from web
5. justinburford Shogun was robbed! 25 minutes ago from TwitterBerry
6. Micfiends shogun was robbed 27 minutes ago from web
7. BrickyardGrill Shogun was robbed! #UFC was totally rigged! Machida got annihilated out there! I give up on any mixed martial arts competitions…. 29 minutes ago from web
8. jamespoling @danawhiteufc How on earth could 3 judges score that fight for Machida? Shogun was robbed. Please avoid Cali if that’s the judges they have 34 minutes ago from Tweetie
9. the_sofa_king Shogun was robbed I say. I bet a parlay of all underdogs and was on my way to a 3000 dollar payday until that terrible decision 35 minutes ago from web
10. StrongandFit @danawhiteufc Shogun was robbed. Get new judges. 40 minutes ago from web
11. twitbenj SHOGUN WAS ROBBED! 42 minutes ago from web
12. MadFlavas Watched UFC 104 today… shogun was robbed about 1 hour ago from web
13. trevorshirk Worst. Decision. Ever. Shogun was robbed. about 1 hour ago from web
14. Jared8908 UFC was a joke tonight. Shogun got robbed! about 1 hour ago from web
15. chriryan85ryan pissed shogun was robbed no more going too california stay in nevada about 1 hour ago from web
16. trustingdragon @KevinI I agree with you, Kevin. Shogun seemed to be the victor. He was robbed. about 1 hour ago from web
17. Krysis_ I’ve said it once & I’ll say it again: Shogun was robbed. about 1 hour ago from twidroid
18. georgiepourgie @danawhiteufc u must be fixing up for a big fight down the line cause Shogun was robbed! I adore Machida but he didn’t deserve the win about 1 hour ago from web
19. BeNeeZy Shogun was ROBBED!!!! Shogun IS THE REAL LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPION!!!! … http://lnk.ms/46W7q about 1 hour ago from MySpace
20. 916Chris Thought UFC 104 was a really good ppv with a great, tactical main event. That said Shogun won and was robbed of a victory by the judges imo about 1 hour ago from web
21. ElBoberino @joerogandotnet Watched the game at my friends place. You could hear shouts from the other apts when Machida won. 2 minutes ago from Twitterrific
22. Prizzy11 O well everyone! Machida “won“,what can we do about it??? 4 minutes ago from web
23. megatronshawn Its Over, Machida Won. And Everyone Is Pissed. Even Machida Knew he Lost. 5 minutes ago from web
24. WhittniBubbles Machida won! Woot! Woot! 5 minutes ago from TwitterBerry
25. SimpleManJess Machida lost but won – Fightlinker – MMA, UFC, and other funny … http://bit.ly/IBtYB 9 minutes ago from twitterfeed
26. Ghost489 WoW that ufc fight was not what i expected….im a huge Machida fan but Shogun won that fight!! 9 minutes ago from mobile web
27. TheKingOfZing Glad that Machida won… pumped for UFC 106 and 107… Going to bed now… Peace out. 11 minutes ago from web
28. cscbmx rigged, I don’t want to see a rematch, shogun Won, machida does deserve that…………………. 12 minutes ago from web
29. Mikey2004 @Rachelle_Leah shogun won it. I fail to see how machida won 3 rounds 12 minutes ago from Echofon
30. TheRepublican86 Says “evrybody knew who won 2nite,SHOGUN! Even da crowe expressed der opinion. Dey booooed Machida and applauded SHOGUN!” FACT! 13 minutes ago from txt
31. sirshan Machida won. Lets face it…if the champ didnt get ko’d or submitted, he won. Punished him yes…win, not really. No belt, no win. LOL!!!!! 14 minutes ago from Tweetie
32. Stehlik2 No way Machida should have won tonight! 15 minutes ago from web
33. apsmithjr I watched the IFC fight, and rua got screwed. machida didn’t even think he won. How do all judges score the same? Something was rotten. 16 minutes ago from Twitterrific
34. HoneyPie440 And Machida won!!!!! 20 minutes ago from web
35. Karl_Tan_Ipong maybe shogun won that fight by score but i think he should knock machida out first to be considered as the champ.. 23 minutes ago from web
36. ryanglancy lyoto machida and cain velasquez both win. one called a little early and the other just a little lucky. either way, glad they both won. 25 minutes ago from web
37. JamMasterAlex Machida won and so did I ; well five bucks about 1 hour ago from UberTwitter
38. naughty_nick @danawhiteufc #UFC104 Machida Vs. Shogun.. Possibly the best fight of the year!! What a screwjob decision, Shogun had that fight won!! about 2 hours ago from UberTwitter
39. DerekWinsick WOW Shogun really won the fight it was either 49-46 him or I can see 48-47 Shogun not 48-47 Machida he did nothing to win that fight about 2 hours ago from web
40. slaloms Wow…Machida…really? Shogun shoulda won that one. about 2 hours ago from Echofon
41. Ghost489 WoW that ufc fight was not what i expected….im a huge Machida fan but Shogun won that fight!! 9 minutes ago from mobile web

End of sample tweets.

Appendices:

Machida Era Is Over: Shogun knocks out Machida at UFC 113 (Cyberaxis)

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs Alistair Overeem (PRIDE 33, 2/24/07)

copyright© 2009 cyberaxis.wordpress.com

Lesnar Vs Carwin in UFC 106: The next step in the ascent of Brock Lesnar (Now rescheduled for UFC 116)

With the addition of UFC stalwarts Antonio Nogueira, Tito Ortiz and Forrest Griffin to the undercard of the historic matchup between Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin, UFC 106  is now shaping up to be more stacked than a corseted Dolly Parton in her glory days. Can you say Dana goes bongo?! Yes folks, for a change the UFC is pulling out all the stops and putting all its nutsacks in the  same bag. The Antonio Nogueira/Luis Cane fight, originally the headliner for UFC 105, would have single-handedly been a worthy undercard of UFC 106,  were it not for the return to the octagon of  Tito  “The Huntington Bad Boy” Ortiz.

So barring an act of God or Nature, the  Mandalay Bay will, come  November 18,  2009,  be seeing one of the biggest  fight in UFC history shored up by two great undercards: Antonio “Minotauro” Nogueira who will be fighting Luis Cane and Tito Ortiz(16-6-1) who will be fighting Forrest Griffin (16-6-0).  Griffin, who will be hunting for some kind of redemption after a disastrous, no make that humiliating showing against Anderson “The Spider” Silva in UFC 101. He suddenly replaced UFC hall of famer, Mark Coleman for reasons that are not quite clear.

UFC 106 couldn’t have come sooner, because the few match-ups following UFC 100 have been darn unremarkable.  Filling gaps between major fights  with lackluster cards does little for the sport and nothing for the fans.  And talking about which,  UFC 104 with Machida vs Rua will just be another celebrated back-room brawl between Brazilian goombahs. And if you want a good measure of just how unexciting this fight is, check the Google search results and rankings  for the “Machida vs Rua” fight. It’s relatively underwhelming for a fight that is only 14 days away. This fight is falling through the cracks to some kind of  mental dead zone for reasons elaborated in  Why UFC 104 with Machida vs Jackson would have eclipsed UFC 100.  (Tsk tsk! to Dan White  for not sticking to the original Machida/Quinton Jackson commitment; the same he announced following UFC 98. The fight would have wowed the fans and made major bank for him and the Fertitta Brothers. And now in retrospect, diverting Quinton Jackson from the Machida-Jackson fight may have been a major boo-boo in light of what Jackson is now saying in the wake of his  resignation from the UFC.)

The little Machida/Rua sideshow will only be notable if Machida cements his new-fangled fame as the New Karate Kid writ large. If he loses, oh well, so much for piss toddies,  cat-paw strikes and the most nimble Ginger Rogers routine ever since that famous redhead, “pas de deuxed”  backwards  into history with Fred Astaire in tow.  But we digress as usual.

Shane Carwin - A long, long shot at upsetting Brock Lesnar and winning the UFC Heavyweight belt in Las Vegas at UFC 106. What then would Lesnar do? Get a job?

Shane Carwin (11-0 MMA, 3-0 UFC) is a hulking cyborg who demolishes opponents with techno-tronic precision. In UFC 106 (now rescheduled as UFC 116) he is slated to face Brock Lesnar (4-1 MMA, 3-1 UFC)  another certifiable cyborg who overwhelms his opponents with size, speed and ground and pound strength that make his opponents feel like sub-compacts in the jaws of a metal compactor. Which brings us to the significance of this fight – a pivotal sequel in the Brock Lesnar story. Note we are not saying anything about Shane Carwin at this point – because he is not gonna win this fight. Lesnar will. And  not necessarily in spectacular fashion – but  win The Brock will. (We will break down the rationale as the match approaches.) Those looking for an exciting fight will most probably be disappointed. Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin fights are thrilling in the same way that monster truck derbies are. Even the official Lesnar/Carwin promo video fails to rise up the pyrotechnic standard of  UFC promo videos because there is little to work with for starters.  You cannot manufacture technical brilliance like a video game programmer. Lesnar dusting off  Mir on the ground looks like a carpenter  trying to batten down a hatch.  Brock Lesnar’s mystique has more to do with his freakish chops and Shane Carwin’s record, with the exception of Gabriel Gonzaga, has been built on fighters who have been less than stellar in heavyweight pugilism. His ground game has sometimes been as exciting as a psych orderly trying to strap down an unruly patient.

Brock "The Brock" Lesnar is a "fucker" who is used to getting his way. Anyone betting against this guy has either too much money on their hands or just clueless about Lesnar's "touchiness" about being belittled or made fun of. Yes, there is a big psyche angle to the Lesnar's drive to be "respected" - positively or negatively.

But with Brock Lesnar versus Shawn Carwin, UFC may be taking  a practical step towards sensible match-ups in a situation that is crying for as a first step  in the right direction by an organization that needs  more rationality in the heavyweight division.  Beyond this, it is the next biggest fight in a line-up of cards that have lacked real heft – the Lesnar-Mir showdown  excepted with lots of reservations.

Me Ze Brock. Whaddya think? Brock Lesnar at UFC 100 weigh-in. The quest for respect, beneath that off kilter boorishness, is real.

Shane Carwin has the sangfroid of a Zen Master. On a personal level he is gonna be a winner going in and out of this fight, but that precludes the unified belt that he and Brock Lesnar are gonna be fighting for.  Good guys don’t always finish first and this, unfortunately,  is gonna apply to Shane in this case ….  unless he gets lucky with that  short right hand (as he did in the case of Gonzaga and Wellisch.)  He may well get lucky because  Lesnar may try to  go toe to toe with Carwin in a winner-takes-it-all bang-fest – at least in the opening encounter. (We would be seriously surprised if Lesnar tried to shoot without exchanging some blows first. Reason?  Every ground and pound hog longs to grow some  stand-up hairs on their balls. )

So the first round will probably see two hulking heavyweights not  renowned for  boxing chops trying to go toe to toe  like prize fighters of the World Boxing Association. Lesnar is not known for his knockout power  probably because of lack of technique and precision, but he has been known to knock goombahs down like bowling pins. Such is the raw power of the former South Dakota farm boy.

“He’s a baby. Don’t kick him because he’ll get hurt. He’s a hell of a wrestler man, the guy can wrestle and he’s strong, but he can’t punch and he can’t get kicked. And he don’t know how to kick. He can only go straight forward.” (Loud-mouth, Tim Sylvia on ESPN Radio)

Anything can happen in a stand-up lollapalooza,  including the knockout of Carwin by a lucky shot from Lesnar.  And if anyone could test Lesnar’s chin at this point, it would have to be Carwin. The question is can Carwin overcome the 3-inch reach deficit and Lesnar’s own elusive antsyness to land the big one that will fell Brock the  Giant (which would make Shane the Giant Killer)? It is possible but highly unlikely. Lesnar, who has never been really, really rocked on tape, is gonna be extra antsy and careful going into this one. (Watch Lesnar’s antsy footwork.) As a matter of fact the caution may be such that the two pachyderms  will be roundly booed in the first round before finally deciding to lock  trunks under crowd duress.

Both are strong, but Lesnar has the edge in the raw strength/power department. Even the size and muscularity differential is visually persuasive.  Some fans/analysts even argue that Lesnar may be stronger in the upper body arena than Carwin. So the strength/power advantage, especially on the ground, goes to Lesnar ….  hence our prediction and the trending odds.

The Odds, The Odds, The Odds!: The Bookers, the fans & the collective ear pressed flush against the ground

The odds are trending towards our prediction at about 68 to 32% for Lesnar. Love him or hate him, these are  the  numbers which may change with time, but we doubt that they will fluctuate by much. The moneyline odds are as follows:

Brock Lesnar -215 (This means that for every $215 you bet, you stand to win $1oo if Brock Lesnar wins. This makes Brock Lesnar the favorite. You are betting or risking more than you stand to win.)

Shane Carwin +175 (This means for every $100 you bet, you stand to win $175 if Carwin wins. This makes Carwin the underdog. You are betting or risking less than you stand to win. The catch is the likeliness of your guy winning though.)

You can convert any moneyline  of the Lesnar/Carwin odds to the 68/32 % probability at the Money Line Converter here.

Beyond the booking halls, no substantive cross section of fans is giving this fight to Carwin overall. Trust the unbiased collective wisdom here and if you are gonna bet, don’t bet the family farm or wedding ring against Lesnar.

The Factors: Motivation

Brock Lesnar has way more to lose in this fight than Shane Carwin because of his higher profile, title and his decision to play the heel in an organization that has never celebrated such.  If Shane loses, he falls back on his mining job and engineering degree. The same cannot be said of Lesnar. If Lesnar loses his heavyweight belt in UFC 106, he would have lost something even more precious than money; his sheen of invincibility and mantle of manifest destiny in the UFC. We at Cyberaxis seriously doubt that Lesnar would be content with being just another lumbering hack fighting in the heavyweight division after what he did at UFC 100: namely flipping everybody off. Psychologically this created a different dynamic between him and MMA fandom. This dynamic is why the home crowd effect, is for better or worse  a big factor in the outcome of the games. The  halting  steps Lesnar took in his first fights were cemented in UFC 100. The newest boy on the MMA block  had shown signs of wanting to court MMA. However with UFC 100, he  slammed the door to that and became an unabashed heel with foam dripping out of his mouth. That was a momentous turn that some dismissed as a predetermined plot line. It was not. With proper guidance, Brock  Lesnar could have blazed a different path in MMA – and one which could have been easier for him, mentally, emotionally,  and perhaps financially in the long run.

The other reason Brock Lesnar has more to lose has to do with how or when he left pro wrestling. In case you have forgotten, Lesnar left WWE  pro wrestling at a time he was poised to be  the next big thing in McMahon’s stable. Did he get a pay cut? You bet.  And for a pipe dream that was far from guaranteed. So when Lesnar takes to the octagon on November 11, (now July 3rd, 2010)  he will be fighting for more than his reputation. Not so the behemoth from Boulder.

The  Chin Factor

We know a little about the chin of Carwin because he got tested by someone who knows a little about knocking hombres out. (See the Carwin vs Gonzaga here.)

Not so much the Monster from Minnesota. Noone inside or outside the UFC has ever tested the chin of Brock Lesnar (at least as far as we know.)  Noone with the right critical mass that is, because it takes  a substantive amount of critical mass to breach Lesnar’s size, frenzied defence and  81″ reach – which is one of the things that stumped Randy Couture when they met in UFC 91.  If anyone can do it this time, it would have to be   Shane Carwin because he has the critical mass (262lbs to Brock Lesnar’s regulation 265lbs) even though Carwin’s  reach,  at 78″,  falls 3 inches short of Lesnar’s.  The reach advantage is not insurmountable for a guy who has the strength, critical mass and  knockout chops of Shane Carwin. What this says is that when all other things are held fairly constant,  size does indeed matter, and Shane does indeed have it. The question is; will he be able to penetrate Lesnar’s offensive and evasive defense? (Watch Lesnar’s antsy foot work and tell us if he is gonna be an easy target to hit – his  size notwithstanding.)

Stay tuned for more thoughts as the fight draws near.

Dolly Parton, UFC 106 and Bongo Boobs

Now, what does Dolly Parton and UFC 106 have in common? Well, read on cowboy, read on Right from the top. Did we say TOP? Heh heh!Yes, I guess we did

Update:

Lesnar “Mirs” Carwin and submits him by a freakish arm triangle choke at UFC 116 (Cyberaxis)

Catastrophic Illness!: Does this mean the end of Brock Lesnar’s UFC career? (Cyberaxis)

Humbled Lesnar returns to UFC spotlight by Dan Wentzel (Yahoo)

Appendices:

Dana White targeting UFC 116 for Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin title-unification bout (Dan Stupp, MMA Junkie)

Postponement of Lesnar vs Carwin by two months to UFC 108 will benefit Carwin (Cyberaxis)

Mutual friend: Ron Waterman handicaps Shane Carwin-Brock Lesnar

Lesnar vs Carwin: Battle of the Behemoths

Nine reasons Brock Lesnar will beat Shane Carwin at UFC 106

The PR Deck Against Brock Lesnar in Mixed Martial Arts (Cyberaxis)

How to bet on UFC fights (MMA Betting Blog)

Moneyline Converter (Online Gambling Network)

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