Forget the over-hyped froth of UFC fights of yesteryear because they are just mere whimpers before the big bang of Lesnar vs Carwin at UFC 116 and “Ordo Novus Seclorum.” MMA time-space is about to unfurl, like universes coming into being. Worlds collide. Fans watch with bated breath, not because Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin are pound-for-pound the best fighters in all of MMA, but because they are the biggest and baddest mofos to ever traverse the octagon at that scale of magnification. That mass. That weight. Word.
“When two elephants fight, the grass gets hurt.” Old, old, West African proverb
Their form, unadorned, dwarfs anything the imagination throws at it. Mere mortals – figurative Willy Lomans – shudder at the thought of encountering such behemoths beyond anything other than a friendly exchange. (God forbid that any one of them would have to defend their ladies’ honor against such behemoths at the local watering hole.) Such is the insidious cachet of heavyweights the world over. They make men squirm in their relative piddliness.
The UFC Fumble: The only match-up that would have rivaled the Lesnar-Carwin card would have been the promised Machida-Jackson matchup; the same that never materialized because of UFC fumbling. But we digress.
Beyond Sophistry – A Caveat: Brock’s illness and its possible after-effects are the big unknowns in this coming contest. Nobody knows how Brock will come out of his post surgery recovery. So put a big asterisk to what we are saying here, and next to it note that this article was originally written when Brock was high-flying, fresh off his pummeling of Frank Mir at UFC 100. So if everything that was fact then continues to hold going into UFC 116, then our predictions then hold the same weight. Just a statement of realistic reassessment versus the crafty means of creating an out for ourselves should Lesnar end up being road kill for Carwin. So with that out of the way, here is a recapitulation of what we wrote back on September 21, 2009.
The end of Shane Carwin’s winning streak is nigh: Shane Carwin will not necessarily be Brock Lesnar’s road kill come UFC 116, but lose to The Brock he will. Our prediction is that it will be by a stoppage in the first or second round. The end will come via Lesnar’s ground-and-pound, most probably near the edge of the octagon. (We know Frank Mir will be reliving this one from the pit of his stomach.) Lesnar will use his weight and massiveness to smother and snuff out Carwin when he is not making visible dents in his skull. But “tranquilo, tranquilo“; we are jumping ahead of ourselves here.
Ten reasons Lesnar will win UFC 116: The other tale o’ the tape:
1. Carwin is hungry, but Lesnar is hungrier …. with a hunger that transcends Abraham Maslow. Define and discuss.
2. Carwin can afford to lose this fight. Lesnar cannot. (His ego is now more pumped up than his form during WWE.) Bottomline is that Brock has way more to lose than Shane, especially after flippin’ off the fans at UFC 100. The battle is now up close and personal. Brock against the diehard aficionados of MMA who still think of him as a WWE beef-cake writ extra large for UFC.
3. Carwin, “The Engineer” will come in with a cerebral bent and Lesnar will go “gangsta” on his ass …. Well as much as a Minnesota boy who talks of ramming horse-shoes up opponents’ bung-holes can. Thinking that Carwin can come into the octagon and out-dirty-box Lesnar is just plain silly. Look for pummeling that may push the limits of UFC/MMA regulations in this fight as one tries to out-do the other. Keep a close eye on Lesnar especially when he looks like he may be losing control of the fight. This would be the cue to go primal – hard-wired to trip in extremis. Lesnar will only be cautious until he sees an opening. Then he will explode on Carwin’s ass like Machida on Evans. What Lesnar lacks in chops, he more than makes up for in adrenaline that is 99% proof.
4. Carwin has octagonal scruples to fret about. Lesnar doesn’t. A variation of point #3.
5. Carwin has to muster the froth and foam with which to put away his opponents: the quality otherwise knows as the killer instinct. Lesnar’s emanate out of the humors of “fear and loathing”. Variations of points #3 and 4.
6. Carwin is a gentleman. Lesnar is a thuggish meat-head. (See points # 3, 4 and 5). He doesn’t like people booing or making fun of him. Nobody does, but Lesnar takes it one step further. How did he get this way? Well, that is a story for another day children.
7. Carwin is strong, but Lesnar is stronger and more explosive and with a hair-trigger reflex to boot, especially in the opening rounds (See points #3 & #5, especially #3). Carwin is as sluggish as Mir. His saving grace is “the power and the glory” he packs in that short right hand. And all of God’s people said amen.
8. Lesnar hath the mass …. and conceit of mass on top of everything his mama gave him. We will explicate. Mass does not necessarily lead to power. Frank Mir’s home gym experiment (pre-Carwin) was proof of that. However mass on top of power, naturally bequeathed, is an attribute most animals, including those running half-naked in the octagon, have a problem dealing with. In the staged face-off between Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin at the end of UFC 111, Lesnar was looking down and Carwin was looking up, just like Frank Mir before him. But we really have to contextualize this. The height difference is about an inch – with Lesnar being the slightly taller. See pic below. But the walk-around weight is where Lesnar dominates at 300 plus pounds versus Carwin in the 280 plus pounds vicinity. So when these guys pile it on after the weigh-in, Lesnar is strutting around like an Atlas. Then there is the musculature beneath the visible mass. Noone can seriously argue that Carwin is stronger. Q.E.D.
Shane Carwin is a 6’2″ cyborg who walks around at 275lbs to 280lbs and cuts weight to fight at 265lbs. Lesnar walks around at about 300lbs and gravitates back towards that weight after the 265lbs weigh-in for a fight. So off the top you have a 20lb walk-around weight differential coupled with a visible size differential which analysts have attributed to a mass distribution anomaly. Carwin is a solid chunk of a man to Lesnar’s Chicken Little lower body topped off by an Incredible Hulk upper body. (Cyberaxis)
9. Lesnar has the Mike Tyson thing going for him (before Buster Douglas busted his chops) and the UFC just has yet to put someone in front of him that will not be intimidated by his record and flashes of what he has done to every fighter he has fought – yes, including Mir in UFC 81. Fans and self-styled analysts have it right: With the exception of Gonzaga, (and Mir as of 03/27/10) Carwin has really fought a bunch of nobodies, which really makes him perhaps two and zero (2-0) in substantive as opposed to nominal stats. But also to be really fair, this kind of makes him like Lesnar before Mir in UFC 81 and Heath Herring in UFC 87.
10. Carwin seems to be very guarded about his chances of winning this thing. Lesnar is not. Victory is a fait accompli even as Carwin hems and haws. Caution versus arrogance? Perhaps, but highly unlikely. Carwin’s hedgy talk is reminiscent of Evans’ in the weeks leading to the disastrous near-decapitation of his noggin at UFC 98. We trust Carwin’s sixth sense here. We meticulously deconstructed Frank Mir’s body language prior to UFC 100 and were right on the money as usual. Wanna know where we did it? Well, you will have to beg children.
The Brock In Training For Carwin – UFC 106:
Check back on July 3rd, 2010 before midnight for a post-script of UFC 116 and our long-standing prediction. For the record, we called Mir vs Carwin for Carwin without as much as a blink. The undercard could be stronger, but noone is really paying to see the undercard.
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