10 Reasons Brock Lesnar Will Beat Shane Carwin at UFC 116


Brock De Beast: Just look at that neck and tell us if Carwin will be able to snap it.

Brock De Beast: Just look at that neck and tell us if Carwin will be able to snap it with his celebrated "short right".

Forget the  over-hyped froth of UFC fights of yesteryear because they are just mere whimpers before the big bang of  Lesnar vs Carwin at UFC 116 and “Ordo Novus Seclorum.”  MMA time-space is about to unfurl, like universes coming into being.  Worlds collide.  Fans watch with bated breath,  not because Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin are pound-for-pound the best fighters in all of MMA,  but because they are the biggest and baddest mofos to ever traverse the octagon at that scale of magnification.  That mass. That weight. Word.

“When two elephants fight, the grass gets hurt.” Old, old, West African proverb

Their form, unadorned,  dwarfs anything the  imagination throws at it.  Mere mortals – figurative Willy Lomans – shudder at the thought of encountering such  behemoths beyond anything other than a friendly exchange.  (God forbid that any one of them would have to defend their ladies’ honor against such behemoths at the local watering hole.)  Such is the insidious  cachet of heavyweights the world over. They make men squirm in their relative piddliness.

The UFC Fumble: The only match-up that would have rivaled the Lesnar-Carwin card would have been the promised Machida-Jackson matchup; the same  that never materialized because of UFC fumbling. But we digress.

Beyond Sophistry – A Caveat: Brock’s illness and its possible after-effects are the big unknowns in this coming contest. Nobody knows how Brock will come out of his post surgery recovery. So put a big asterisk to what we are saying here, and next to it note that this article was originally written when Brock was high-flying, fresh off his pummeling of Frank Mir at UFC 100. So if everything that was fact then continues to hold going into UFC 116, then our predictions then hold the same weight. Just a statement of realistic reassessment versus the crafty means of creating an out for ourselves should Lesnar end up being road kill for Carwin. So with that out of the way, here is a recapitulation of what we wrote back on September 21, 2009.

Shane De Behemoth: Will he be tough enough for The Brock?

Shane De Behemoth, trying to look scary: He is a rock solid cyborg from top to bottom, but will he be tough enough to rock "The Brock"? We doubt it, and we are rarely wrong.

The end of Shane Carwin’s winning streak is nigh: Shane Carwin will not necessarily be Brock Lesnar’s road kill come UFC 116, but lose to The Brock  he will.  Our prediction is that it will be by a stoppage in the  first or second round. The end will come via Lesnar’s  ground-and-pound,  most probably near the edge of the octagon. (We know Frank Mir will be reliving this one from the pit of his stomach.) Lesnar will use his weight and massiveness to smother and snuff out Carwin when he is not making visible dents in his skull. But “tranquilo, tranquilo“;  we are jumping ahead of ourselves here.

Ten reasons Lesnar will win UFC 116: The other tale o’ the tape:

1. Carwin is hungry, but Lesnar is hungrier …. with a hunger that transcends Abraham Maslow.  Define and discuss.

2. Carwin can afford to lose this fight.  Lesnar cannot.  (His ego is now more pumped up than his form during WWE.) Bottomline is that Brock has way more to lose than Shane, especially after flippin’ off the fans at UFC 100. The battle is now up close and personal. Brock against the diehard aficionados  of MMA who still think of him as a WWE beef-cake writ extra large for UFC.

3. Carwin, “The Engineer” will come in with a cerebral bent and Lesnar will go “gangsta”  on his ass …. Well as much as a Minnesota boy who talks of ramming horse-shoes up opponents’ bung-holes can.  Thinking that Carwin can come into the octagon and out-dirty-box Lesnar is just plain silly. Look for pummeling that may push the limits of  UFC/MMA regulations in this fight as one tries to out-do the other. Keep a close eye on Lesnar especially when he looks like he may be losing control of the fight. This would be the cue to go primal – hard-wired to trip in extremis.  Lesnar  will only be cautious until he sees an opening. Then he will explode on Carwin’s ass  like Machida on Evans.  What Lesnar lacks in chops, he more than makes up for in adrenaline that is 99% proof.

4. Carwin has octagonal scruples to fret about. Lesnar doesn’t. A variation of point #3.

5. Carwin has to muster the froth and foam with which to put away his opponents: the quality otherwise knows as the killer instinct.  Lesnar’s emanate out of the humors of  “fear and loathing”. Variations of points #3 and 4.

6. Carwin is a gentleman. Lesnar is a thuggish meat-head. (See points # 3, 4 and 5). He doesn’t like people booing or making fun of him. Nobody does, but Lesnar takes it one step further. How did he get this way? Well, that is a  story for another day children.

7. Carwin is strong, but Lesnar is stronger and more explosive and with a hair-trigger reflex to boot, especially in the opening rounds (See points #3 & #5, especially #3). Carwin is as sluggish as Mir. His saving grace is “the power and the glory” he packs in that short right hand.  And all of God’s people said amen.

8. Lesnar hath the mass …. and conceit of mass on top of everything his mama gave him.  We will explicate. Mass does not necessarily lead to power. Frank Mir’s home gym experiment (pre-Carwin) was proof of that. However mass on top of power, naturally bequeathed,  is an attribute most animals, including those running half-naked in the octagon, have a problem dealing with.  In the staged face-off between Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin at the end of UFC 111, Lesnar was looking down and Carwin was looking up, just like Frank Mir before him. But we really have to contextualize this. The height difference is about an inch – with Lesnar being the slightly taller. See pic below. But the walk-around weight is where Lesnar dominates at 300 plus pounds versus Carwin in the 280 plus pounds vicinity. So when these guys pile it on after the weigh-in, Lesnar is strutting around like an Atlas. Then there is the musculature beneath the visible mass. Noone can seriously argue that Carwin is stronger.  Q.E.D.

Shane Carwin is  a 6’2″ cyborg who walks around at 275lbs to 280lbs and cuts weight to fight at 265lbs.  Lesnar walks around at about 300lbs and gravitates back towards that weight after the 265lbs weigh-in for a fight. So off the top you have a 20lb walk-around weight differential coupled with a visible size differential which analysts have attributed to a mass distribution anomaly.  Carwin is a solid chunk of a man to Lesnar’s Chicken Little lower body topped off by an Incredible Hulk upper body. (Cyberaxis)

Lesnar - Carwin UFC 116 Weigh In Comp Shot

Lesnar vs Carwin: The UFC 116 weigh-in showing the marginal difference in height (about 1 inch), but there is the not-so-fictional illusion that Brock is bigger. The upper body musculature, neck and normal walk-around weight really make it less of an illusion.See note above. (Photo: Zuffa LLC)

9. Lesnar has the Mike Tyson thing going for him (before Buster Douglas busted his chops) and the UFC just has yet to put someone in front of him that will not be intimidated by his record and flashes of what he has done to every fighter he has fought – yes, including Mir in  UFC 81.   Fans and self-styled analysts have it right: With the exception of Gonzaga, (and Mir as of 03/27/10) Carwin has really fought a bunch of nobodies, which really makes him perhaps two and zero (2-0) in substantive as opposed to nominal stats. But also to be really fair, this kind of makes him like Lesnar before  Mir in UFC 81 and Heath Herring in UFC 87.

10. Carwin seems to be very guarded about his chances of winning this thing. Lesnar is not. Victory is a  fait accompli even as Carwin hems and haws. Caution versus arrogance? Perhaps, but highly unlikely. Carwin’s hedgy talk is reminiscent of Evans’ in the weeks leading to the disastrous near-decapitation  of his noggin at UFC 98.  We trust Carwin’s sixth sense here. We meticulously  deconstructed Frank Mir’s body language prior to UFC 100 and were right on the money as usual. Wanna know where we did it? Well, you will have to beg children.

The Brock In Training For Carwin – UFC 106:

Check back on July 3rd, 2010 before midnight  for a post-script of UFC 116 and our long-standing prediction.  For the record, we called Mir vs Carwin for Carwin without as much as a blink. The undercard could be stronger, but noone is really paying to see the undercard.

copyright© 2009 cyberaxis.wordpress.com

Appendices:

Lesnar “Mirs” Carwin and submits him by a freakish arm triangle choke at UFC 116 (Cyberaxis)

Lesnar vs Carwin set for UFC 116 on July 3rd, 2010 in Las Vegas, NV (Cyberaxis)

Lesnar vs Carwin in UFC 106: The next step in the ascent of Brock Lesnar (Cyberaxis)

Open Challenge to Brock Lesnar: Stand up and deliver at UFC 116 and begin to earn the respect of MMA (Cyberaxis)

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6 responses to “10 Reasons Brock Lesnar Will Beat Shane Carwin at UFC 116

  1. Brock is a boring fighter. He has not been impressive in his wins against anyone. He has no big knockouts. He’s just very big and wins mainly due to his size advantage. Shane however has won 12 UFC fights, most of them with brutal knockout power! So Shane has more punching power for sure.

    I really have no idea what will happen. Anything can happen. Either of these big guys could win. But I think Brock will be knocked out. I would love to see Brock knocked out!

    • The two behemoths will trade big fists for a few furious moments, but don’t expect Brock Lesnar to want to keep it there – especially if he gets clocked in the head. We think Brock Lesnar will want to take the fight to the ground at the earliest opportune moment and try and end it there. We seriously doubt that he will want to stand toe-to-toe with Shane for any length of time. Fact: Nobody knows how Brock handles being hit in the face. We would surmise not very well. So we think Brock will try and take the fight to the ground at as soon as possible. Once on the ground, massive size and strength will give Brock the edge. Refer back to article for rationale.

      The Editor – Cyberaxis
      (Remember the words of Chaim Bertman,
      “In the venom, is a whisper of the antidote.”)

  2. Brock Lesnar is a Division One National Champion. Shane Carwin is a Division Two National Champion. Edge Lesnar.

    This outcome of this fight depends on whether Carwin can stop Brock’s take downs. He cannot.

    After the official weigh-in, Brock puts on water weight which adds more mass for Carwin to deal with.

    When Brock Lesnar was in the WWE he flew around the ring like a 200-pounder. He is a amazing athlete. He will prove that once again in UFC 116.

  3. Carwin does not have 12 UFC fights. That’s just the uninformed losing sight with that statement.

    Carwin has 4 UFC wins.

    Brock Lesnar has 3 UFC wins with tougher opponents.

    Carwin does not have 12 (T)KO’s either. He has 7 and 5 submissions – although 1 of the submissions on his record was due to strikes.

    Carwin has power. We all know that. But he hasn’t had one hitter quitter like many people are buying into. Other than Rex Slaton and Chrisitan Wellisch, the rest of them were from “punches”, i.e. repeated punches once the opponent was hurt. The majority of that comes from the fact that Carwin was matched against guys that he could muscle around. That won’t be the case come July 3rd with Brock Lesnar. He’s going to have to earn that victory.

    How is Carwin going to hold up if the fight drags on? He’s not used to seeing the outside of the first round, and he’s not used to spending a lot of energy trying to wrestle either. That will draw the lactic acid into the muscles and decrease his power as the fight wears on.

    People say because Carwin trains at high altitude, his cardio is fine. I will concede that it has been fine for training and fine for the brief cage encounters he has had so far. Think of the other guys that train at high altitude that have been beat to date. They include:

    Tito Ortiz, Nate Marquardt, Anthony Johnson, etc, etc.

    High altitude training is great for normal conditioning. It increases lung capacity. It does not however do anything for muscle fatigue, and adrenaline dumps. Carwin is a big guy too. But the one thing we don’t know is how much that power translates into length in terms of endurance. Once he starts having to really push a pace and use energy to defend himself against TD’s or to get up off the ground, I think you’re going to see Carwin start to fade. Nothing in training can simulate a real fight in terms of fatigue and adrenaline dumps. Once he realizes that he can’t spring around and fire off, he’s going to know that it’s boiling down to will power, something I just don’t think he’ll have an advantage over Lesnar.

    Lesnar by TKO round 2 maybe 3…

    MMAuthority

  4. This article sums up my thoughts perfectly – aside from the biblical form it has taken.

    Lesnar will not stand with Carwin. He will simply go for takedown after takedown, because – contrary to what some may believe – he isn’t actually dumb. He recognises he can lose, and looking at how he trains shows he is learning rapidly.

    Carwin seems like a nice guy, when he’s not fighting that is, so there’s no hate from me here. However unless he can fire off a fast shot before Lesnar bull-rushes him for a takedown, I see (and hope) for a UFC 100 repeat – takedown, smash, repeat. TKO in the first or second – Carwin doesn’t have the BJJ that Mir had that kept the fight in half-guard for the first round.

  5. Okay, I’m going to laugh when Carwin beats Lesnar. All of these predictions/reasons are very stupid. Yes, Lesnar is a little bigger and moves faster, and is probably the better wrestler, but you can’t even compare the striking game. Carwin is a much better striker and that is why he will defeat Lesnar. Mark my words, just wait and see.

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