As minutes to UFC 111 tick down, fans huddle behind bars and computer screens, caught up in the vicarious heaving and hoeing of conjecture, suspense and roller-coaster emotions that usually attend these events. For Frank Mir an unscheduled moment of truth may be about to hit him …. up on his knees shaking his head after being knocked down or out. The crowd is going crazy and Mir knows it is not for him. Not for him. He looks up at his wife and something passes between them. It is time – but its OK, they have each other.
Fantasy? Yeah, perhaps, but we seriously doubt it. Especially the essence of the hunch that Frank Mir, the 60 to 40 favorite, is walking into an upset that will come as a result of being knocked out after being overwhelmed by Carwin’s strength. Frank may have hit 264.5lbs at the height of bulking up, but that does not necessarily translate into functional strength and endurance. Carwin, whose last weigh-in weight at UFC 96 was 259.5lbs, said he had to cut weight to meet the 265lbs limit. He is the more compact of the two and arguably the more naturally strong. We think that beyond skill, this is what is gonna carry the day. Franks’s new-fangled boxing skills, although marginally better than Carwin’s, are not gonna carry the day because in order to deploy them, he will have to enter the event horizon where anything can and often does happen. The more Mir boxes with Carwin, the more he stands the chance of being knocked down or out by that short right. And the more he wrestles with Carwin, the more he stands the chance of tasting Carwin’s raw strength (something he shares with Lesnar) and his ground-and-pound chops. The latter ain’t pretty but they get the job done. End of story.
Injury Caveat: The other thing Frank needs to look out for are the possibilities for serious injuries. We were concerned for him at UFC 100 and the outcome almost bore our fears out. He needs to look out for himself in this fight and not (to put it into his own words) let his ego get in the way.
So Cyberaxis is calling UFC 111 for Shane Carwin in the first or second round by knock our or TKO. Mark the date stamps on this post if in doubt our intentions to stick by our prediction. Take a screen shot for good measure.
Lessons Learned: Losing is gonna be a tough pill for Frank Mir but it will turn him into a better human being and competitor. You will know about this because he will tell you in time. When the time comes he will tell you that losing afforded him a chance to re-center himself and find a sense of perspective in a world that had become topsy-turvy with his loss to Brock Lesnar. Losing will turn Mir’s his energies inward where they should have been oriented in the first place.
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