With just over an hour before the punch-up between Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin in UFC 121, we have made an alternative reassessment of Cain’s chances on an inspired whim fired by a sense of presentiment. From a head stand-point it feels like a long shot but it is very possible: Cain has a puncher’s chance of winning this fight. It would be all in the timing; a stunner of a blow (don’t taze me bro!) followed by well placed blows in the clinch or the ground for the finishing coup de grace.
It’s a long shot, but its possible – just like Mir’s leg lock against Lesnar was possible in UFC 81.
Gladiador Mejor - El Matador - Cain Velasquez. Could UFC 121 turn into a UFC 81 redux?
A David vs Goliath Match-up: Cain Velasquez is entering UFC 121 with more weight on his shoulders than he should rightfully be bearing: what he describes as the hope of millions of Latino fans for a Mexican heavyweight champion. Brock Lesnar, the self-acclaimed “meanest son of a bitch” stands alone against his doubters. That weight – the weight on Cain Velasquez’s shoulders can make or break fighter. Tonight is gonna show us what it will do to Cain vs a man who thinks he has a thing or two to prove a world he has already flipped off.
To the extent that the home court advantage is an influencer of sporting outcomes, Cain has it. We at Cyberaxis think synergy, ceteris paribus, can influence things by providing the margin of difference. While this has to yet be taken into the lab for statistical vetting, nobody disputes the anecdotal wisdom of the home advantage.
Back to the Strategical Aspect: Cain has an advantage in the striking department he needs his impressive Muay Thai kicks to chop Lesnar’s base – the basis of his speed and extraordinary mobility. If he can do it Machida style without being taken down, he has an extraordinary chance of neutralizing a big part of Lesnar’s advantage.
The said scenario can happen in any round. If Velasquez’s strategy is gonna rely on chopping Lesnar’s legs in the first couple of rounds then expect anything in the last three rounds. Remember, you heard it here first.
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Appendices:
Cain Velasquez and postcards from UFC 110 (Cyberaxis)
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